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Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon Points
Player Prop - 2/28/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon measures in the 88th percentile for field goal proficiency with a a phenomenal 56.4% rate this year.

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon slots into the 79th percentile for playing time, compiling a massive 30.4 minutes per game while at home this year.

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 52.6% on shot attempts from the field (25th-best in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a strong matchup.

The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a spike in possessions today from squaring off against the 10th-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 20 games (the Kings).

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Aaron Gordon has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 1.7 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home.

The 4th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league this year has been the Denver Nuggets.

In terms of getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's subpar 20.7 foul shot attempts per game comes in as the 6th-worst in the NBA this year.

Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.4 free throws per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Kings, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

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