Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/9/2024

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 9, 2024

Updated Feb 10, 2024 3:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon registers in the 77th percentile for shooting efficiency when playing on the road with a a remarkable 51.3% rate this year.
Among all players in the league, Aaron Gordon rates in the 84th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 31.9 minutes per game this year.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 52.6% on shot attempts from the field (25th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, creating a strong matchup.
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in plays today from sharing the court with the 2nd-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Sacramento Kings).
The Denver Nuggets rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 higher than he's averaged in all games this season.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games on the road.
The Nuggets have played at the most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Out of all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon rates in the 12th percentile for free-throw proficiency with a a subpar 60.8% rate this year.
Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Kings, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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