Aaron Gordon Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 5, 2024 1:43 AM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has converted 68.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games at home, 6.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season while at home.
Aaron Gordon has made 50.9% of his 3-pointers over the last 10 games at home, 11.2% higher than he's sunk overall this season when playing at home.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets grade out 5thbest in in the league with 11.7 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Aaron Gordon has attempted 4.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Aaron Gordon will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to boost player performance across the board.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's committed over the course of the year.
The matchup against the Trail Blazers is a difficult one for 3-pointers; the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 12th-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (29.6%).
The least up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 6th-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Portland Trail Blazers).
Over the last 25 games when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has secured 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Trail Blazers (lengthening possessions that can lead to further chances for offense).