Aaron Gordon Assists - Player Prop Bet 5/11/2025

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Aaron Gordon

NBA · Player Props

Aaron Gordon

F · Denver Nuggets

Assists

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 11, 2025

Updated May 11, 2025 7:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Gordon Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-127/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Aaron Gordon has averaged 3.4 assists per game this year at home, ranking him among the NBA's hottest in this category recently: 80th percentile.
Aaron Gordon has been on the court for 40.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 9.8 higher than he's been on the court for in all games this year at home.
The Nuggets will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-quickest pace team in the league over the last 15 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
The Nuggets have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Aaron Gordon stands to get a boost in output in all stat categories on account of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Aaron Gordon has accumulated 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.3 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the season at home.
The Nuggets have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.

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