The Athletic FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the purpose of this article?

With the increasing legalization of sports betting across various states, The Athletic has teamed up with EV Analytics to deliver an innovative daily article to its readers. This article offers valuable sports betting data, including a summary of noteworthy information aimed at enhancing your betting decisions and save you time by consolidating odds, projections, and insights into one convenient location.


What makes this betting article unique? 

This article is driven by EV Analytics' WriteNow product, tailored to furnish readers with real-time information and data. Given that sports betting hinges on both numbers and information, having timely and relevant data is imperative for making informed bets. In contrast to standard static betting articles, which are typically published in the morning and swiftly become outdated by afternoon, the WriteNow product ensures continual updates related to content. This dynamic approach means that information is consistently refreshed to deliver readers actionable and valuable betting insights throughout the day.


What is the source of the Team Projections?

The Team Projections are driven by THE BAT X baseball model. Over the past four years, THE BAT X has consistently ranked as the most accurate standalone projection system in fantasy baseball, as verified by studies conducted at FanGraphs and FantasyPros.

THE BAT X is the brainchild of Derek Carty, who has dedicated over a decade and more than 10,000 hours to developing THE BAT. Drawing from his expertise and methodologies refined through his involvement in the sabermetric community, Derek collaborated with top baseball minds worldwide, many of whom now contribute to decision-making for championship-winning MLB clubs. THE BAT integrates fundamental aspects such as park factors and platoon splits, alongside nuanced factors like air density and umpire tendencies, providing users with a competitive advantage. Since 2020, THE BAT X has further enhanced its capabilities by incorporating Statcast data, enhancing its predictive accuracy.


What is the source of the Odds?

The odds displayed in the projections table are sourced directly    from BetMGM, with whom The Athletic maintains an affiliate program.    While we recommend BetMGM due to their extensive array of betting    markets, we encourage bettors to always seek the best prices    available. To assist in locating the optimal price, we offer our premium line service, a valuable tool for identifying the most    favorable prices across various sportsbooks and a broad spectrum of    betting markets, including props. Understanding the significance of    price comparison underscores the importance of making informed    betting decisions.


How frequently are the projections updated?

The projections powered by THE BAT X undergo updates on a 5-minute loop throughout the day, reflecting the influx of new information. These updates encompass various factors such as projected batting order adjustments, defensive configurations, umpire assignments, weather forecasts, starting pitcher pitch counts, and more. While most alterations are minor and may not occur in every 5-minute loop, significant changes typically occur upon the release of the official lineup or in the event of a starting pitcher change. The data table is updated whenever there is a change in the Moneyline odds from BetMGM or when THE BAT X projections are adjusted. It's important to note that all odds and projections are locked in at gametime.


When is the optimal time to consult the model and its projections?

The projections are most precise just prior to the start of the game. However, this timing coincides with the efficiency of sportsbook odds, which are refined as bettors contribute to their shaping. Since opening odds are less efficient, we suggest referencing the model and projections as soon as odds are released. In the case of MLB, it's crucial to verify which starting pitchers the model forecasts compared to those listed by the sportsbook. Failure to do so could result in significant disparities between the odds and the projections.
   

Why would you share a profitable system?

The reality is that sportsbooks exist to generate profits, which means they’re quick to limit sharp action or reduce limits on markets that don’t benefit their bottom line. This creates a barrier for professional bettors who have invested significant effort into developing profitable models, only to face restrictions once they demonstrate success. Eventually, the challenge of profitability extends beyond just creating winning models; it involves finding legal avenues or sportsbooks willing to accept your bets. This barrier has spurred the establishment of EV Analytics, a self-funded data company that has shifted its focus to providing innovative and valuable data in the sports betting sphere. Our aim is to empower fans and businesses alike with actionable data. Our partnership with The Athletic is built on the premise of enhancing brand exposure by delivering valuable data to its readers.
   

What are your records?

While we're in the process of developing a comprehensive results table, we provide data tools designed to facilitate informed betting decisions and save time. It's important to note that we don't sell picks; rather, we offer projections. These projections are subject to change throughout the day based on new information such as starting lineups, umpires, weather conditions, and more. Maintaining records for every projection change against the odds across various sportsbooks and betting markets would be impractical to display.

Although we could potentially sell picks that outperform the markets, it's challenging to scale this approach because odds fluctuate, and not everyone can access the same odds simultaneously. However, we understand the value of transparency and recognize that users seek assurance regarding the efficacy of the data tools we provide.

It's worth noting that THE BAT X enjoy esteemed reputation within the sports analytics community. This model is crafted using highly sophisticated methodologies akin to those employed by professional sports clubs. They consistently rank among the top systems in third-party studies and undergo continual backtesting and enhancements to maintain their quality.

We've utilized this tool in conjunction with sound sports betting strategies to achieve success in beating the markets over an extended period. Similarly, we've received numerous testimonials from users who've shared similar experiences.

Nevertheless, it's crucial to understand that projections aren't definitive "answers to a test." While they offer tremendous value, long-term results may not always hold up over a small sample size due to variance. Variations in performance can occur despite the underlying projections remaining accurate. Betting is inherently probabilistic, and maintaining the right mindset is essential for success.


Can these projections lead to profitable outcomes?

Historically, yes. However, it's vital to understand that success in sports betting extends beyond having an effective projection system. Sports betting is a long-term endeavor characterized by small but cumulative edges. Many bettors struggle with the demanding nature of this pursuit. To capitalize on these projections and generate profits, one must be price-conscious, proficient in bankroll management and timing bets, and resilient to the emotional ups and downs akin to a roller-coaster ride. Consequently, it's essential to recognize that sports betting isn't suitable for everyone. If your goal is to make quick money, we recommend exploring alternative avenues, or simply acknowledge that sports betting can serve as an enjoyable and legal form of entertainment when approached responsibly.


Why are there missing games or projections?

While we strive to maintain accurate data, there are two primary reasons why a game may be absent from the projections table. Firstly, BetMGM may not have published odds for that particular game. Secondly, BetMGM may have temporarily removed those odds from their platform. Uncertainty surrounding a game, such as uncertainty regarding scheduled pitchers or players, could prompt the removal of odds.

If you're viewing the article on a mobile device and cannot see the    projections, it may be because your device's screen cannot    accommodate all the table columns. Simply resize or scroll the projections table to access all column values. If the data table is    still not visible, it could potentially be related to your browser    or computer firewall settings. However, resolving such issues may    require further details and troubleshooting.

PROJECTIONS TABLE - LEGEND

IMPLIED WIN% --

The percentage chance that the team wins the game implied by the BetMGM's moneyline.

THE BAT X WIN% --

The percentage chance that the team wins the game according to THE BAT X's projections, regardless of the odds.

CASH LINE --

The lowest price that projects to still have positive expected value (+EV).   

VALUE --

The difference between THE BAT X Win% and BetMGM's Implied Odds Win%.  Higher numbers and greener color-coding imply THE BAT is higher on that team's chances of winning than BetMGM is, and thus there may be value in that bet. Projections are meant to be used as tool, not an end-all-be-all, but historically, the higher the number/the greener the column, the more value may exist in placing that bet.

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