Get Tickets Information for Rockies vs Reds – 7/11/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on July 11, 2025, both teams are coming off distinctly different seasons. The Reds sit at 48-46, showcasing an average performance, while the Rockies are struggling significantly with a dismal 21-72 record. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, and the stakes are high for Cincinnati as they look to solidify their standing.

In their most recent outings, the Reds have been buoyed by strong offensive performances, while the Rockies continue to flounder. Cincinnati’s offense ranks 15th in MLB, showing some promise, particularly with their best hitter maintaining a robust .438 batting average over the past week. In contrast, Colorado’s lineup is ranked 26th in MLB, struggling to find consistency and power, which could be detrimental against a Reds pitching staff that is projected to perform well.

Chase Burns, the Reds’ starter, has had a rocky start to the season with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 8.10. However, his 3.51 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting he could turn things around. Burns is a high-strikeout pitcher facing a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, giving him a potential edge in this matchup. Conversely, German Marquez, who has a 3-10 record and an ERA of 5.84, will take the mound for Colorado. His low strikeout rate could spell trouble against a Reds team that has been known to rack up strikeouts.

With a high Game Total of 9.5 runs and the Reds favored at a moneyline of -220, the projections suggest a strong likelihood for Cincinnati to capitalize on their home-field advantage against a struggling Rockies team. The Reds are projected to score an impressive 5.61 runs, making them the team to watch in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. German Marquez has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Thairo Estrada – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme flyball bats like Thairo Estrada tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chase Burns.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Mickey Moniak pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Chase Burns’s 97.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Austin Hays has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 6.8% rate last year to 14.7% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Tyler Stephenson, Will Benson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 51% ROI)