Latest Player Stats for Mets vs Marlins – Friday May 22, 2026

New York Mets

@

Miami Marlins

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Considering the 1.37 discrepancy between Tobias Myers’s 3.50 ERA and his 4.87 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should see worse results in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  MJ Melendez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the game: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2653 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Liam Hicks’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.8-mph now compared to just 84.6-mph then.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Christopher Morel is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.6% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.