Latest Player Stats for Mets vs Marlins - Friday May 22, 2026

-105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-115

New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
Considering the 1.37 discrepancy between Tobias Myers’s 3.50 ERA and his 4.87 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should see worse results in future games.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Carson Benge has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Out of all starting pitchers, Eury Perez’s fastball spin rate of 2653 rpm is in the 100th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Owen Caissie has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph average.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Owen Caissie hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 away games (+15.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+155/-205)
Carson Benge has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 32% ROI)

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