Learn from the Match Preview: Rockies vs D-Backs Game Forecast - May 22, 2026

+165O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-195

Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Tomoyuki Sugano will ring up an average of 2.9 strikeouts in this outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Grading out in the 98th percentile, Mickey Moniak has notched a .474 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.
Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Mike Soroka – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael Soroka has used his non-fastballs 11.8% more often this season (56.8%) than he did last year (45%).
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a unit rank in the cellar of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) in regard to their 88.4-mph average exit velocity.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-195)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+4.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
Jake McCarthy has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.65 Units / 25% ROI)

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