Game Recap for Athletics vs Padres - Friday, May 22nd, 2026

+105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-125

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Jeffrey Springs will average a total of 2.76 earned runs in today’s outing.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Henry Bolte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
Henry Bolte is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Shea Langeliers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
Walker Buehler’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (66.3% compared to 58.8% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
Gavin Sheets has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 94-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be wise to expect better numbers for the San Diego Padres offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 45 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Athletics – Moneyline (+105)
The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+10.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)

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