Game Recap for Athletics vs Padres - Friday, May 22nd, 2026

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135

Zack Gelof – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+200/-265)
Zack Gelof has big-time power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (29.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler has a pitch-to-contact profile (12th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Shea Langeliers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Walker Buehler’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (66.3% compared to 58.8% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
Freddy Fermin’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 89.1-mph mark last season has fallen to 86.1-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be wise to expect better numbers for the San Diego Padres offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 45 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Athletics – Moneyline (+115)
The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+10.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
Shea Langeliers has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)

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