White Sox vs Giants Picks and Betting Odds – 5/22/2026

Chicago White Sox

@

San Francisco Giants

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Placing in the 83rd percentile, Davis Martin notched a 12.5% Swinging Strike rate this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Edgar Quero’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90.6-mph mark last year has lowered to 87-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.8% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Because flyball batters struggle against flyball pitchers, Trevor McDonald (51.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 4 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Harrison Bader has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 21.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 26.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The San Francisco Giants have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-180)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)