Nationals vs Braves Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 5/22/2026

Washington Nationals

@

Atlanta Braves

Washington Nationals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Grading out in the 1st percentile, Miles Mikolas put up a 7.1% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Nasim Nunez – Over/Under Total Bases
  By putting up a .037 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Nasim Nunez is positioned in the 1st percentile.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Bryce Elder has recorded 18.8 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 96th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under Hits
  Austin Riley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dominic Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.