See the Starting Lineup for Padres vs Giants – September 13, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the San Diego Padres on September 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting standings. With a record of 72-75, the Giants are navigating an average season, while the Padres, boasting a more impressive 82-65 record, are solidly positioned for a Wild Card run.

In their last outing, the Padres were victorious in a tightly contested game, showcasing their offensive prowess. This matchup marks the first of a crucial series, amplifying both teams’ stakes heading into the final stretch of the season.

On the mound, Logan Webb is set to start for the Giants. Despite a respectable 12-9 record and a solid 3.46 ERA, Webb’s underlying metrics suggest room for concern; his 4.31 xERA indicates he may not sustain his current success. Webb has been effective at limiting earned runs, projecting to allow just 2.2 today, but he struggles with allowing hits, which is a troubling trend.

Dylan Cease will take the hill for the Padres, carrying a 12-11 record and a 3.71 ERA into the game. Cease, ranked 26th among starting pitchers, is known for his strikeout ability, averaging 7.6 today. However, his projected metrics also reveal weaknesses in hit and walk allowances, which could present opportunities for the Giants’ lineup.

The Giants’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 19th overall and struggling particularly in batting average at 20th in the league. In contrast, the Padres excel offensively, ranking 7th and first in team batting average. With both teams boasting elite bullpens—Giants ranked 1st and Padres at 2nd—this matchup could hinge on the starting pitchers’ performances.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, reflecting the tight expectations for scoring, particularly given the Giants’ low implied team total of 3.50 runs. Betting markets suggest a closely contested game, but the Padres’ overall form and offensive capabilities may give them the edge in this critical matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.3 mph this year (96.2 mph) over where it was last season (94.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Elias Diaz is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starter, Logan Webb has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 7.7 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jerar Encarnacion – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Jerar Encarnacion has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 5th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+6.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 104 games (+11.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-165)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 45 games (+10.35 Units / 22% ROI)