
St. Louis Cardinals
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Milwaukee Brewers
+150O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-175
(-110/-110)-175
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Michael McGreevy’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (58.8% vs. 53.1% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Bryan Torres – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball hitters like Bryan Torres usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-175)The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Brice Turang has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Ranking lowest in MLB this year, Milwaukee Brewers bats collectively have posted a 8.9° launch angle (an advanced stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power).Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+150)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 away games (+8.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+14.20 Units / 203% ROI)
