
Minnesota Twins
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Chicago White Sox
-115O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)-105
(-115/-105)-105
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Joe Ryan’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (43.6% compared to 37.6% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Trevor Larnach has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.4% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past 7 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Minnesota Twins hitters jointly rank near the bottom of the league this year ( 4th-worst) as it relates to their 88-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Sean Burke’s 2548-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 96th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Miguel Vargas has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 91.8-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-105)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.65 Units / 68% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)
