
St. Louis Cardinals
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Milwaukee Brewers
+150O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-175
(-110/-110)-175
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Michael McGreevy’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (58.8% vs. 53.1% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Bryan Torres – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball hitters like Bryan Torres usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Checking in at the 95th percentile, Kyle Harrison recorded a 14.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
