Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Nationals vs Braves - July 31st, 2026

+100O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-120

Foster Griffin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Foster Griffin must realize this, because he has used his secondary pitches a lot this year: 73.8% of the time, placing in the 99th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, compiling a .387 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .051 discrepancy.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
In today’s game, James Wood is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.9% rate (99th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Out of all starters, Bryce Elder’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph is in the 8th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
Over the last week, Austin Riley’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-120)
The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Atlanta Braves.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-135)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.20 Units / 49% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.0 (-145)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.55 Units / 25% ROI)
Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)

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