Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Reds vs Mets Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Chase Burns’s fastball spin rate of 2567 rpm grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  In comparison to his 90.7-mph average last year, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 93.7 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Considering that groundball batters have a substantial advantage over flyball pitchers, David Peterson and his 51% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Cincinnati’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Brett Baty, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• It may be smart to expect better numbers for the New York Mets offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+17.20 Units / 38% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+125/-160)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 20 away games (+7.75 Units / 39% ROI)