Match Preview: Twins vs Mariners Game Forecast – Friday, July 31, 2026

Minnesota Twins

@

Seattle Mariners

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Zebby Matthews has used his curveball 6.9% more often this season (12.7%) than he did last year (5.8%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Royce Lewis pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Bryce Miller’s 95.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.3-mph increase from last year’s 94.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Cal Raleigh has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Weston Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Weston Wilson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+8.50 Units / 106% ROI)