Follow Live Updates on Mets vs Cubs – Sunday, April 19th, 2026

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  With a 1.34 discrepancy between Tobias Myers’s 3.53 ERA and his 4.87 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should see negative regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Mark Vientos has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 75.3-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-140)
  Out of every team today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Seiya Suzuki has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .342 mark is a fair amount lower than his .384 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 31% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-165)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 36% ROI)