Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Padres - Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026

-110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-110

JR Ritchie – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
With 6 batters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, JR Ritchie figures to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
Mauricio Dubon has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
German Marquez’s 2152-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 17th percentile out of all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Manny Machado’s speed has declined this year. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.86 ft/sec now.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+7.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)

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