Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Braves vs Padres - Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-110

JR Ritchie – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. JR Ritchie must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 64.2% of the time, grading out in the 89th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Austin Riley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Among all SPs, Griffin Canning’s fastball spin rate of 2189 rpm grades out in the 25th percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.5-mph to 97.5-mph in the last two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-110)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 away games (+7.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.25 Units / 38% ROI)

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