Picks and Betting Guide for Cubs vs Mets – Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Chicago Cubs

@

New York Mets

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Edward Cabrera has used his change-up 5.7% more often this year (31.3%) than he did last season (25.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Dansby Swanson has been unlucky this year, notching a .278 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .056 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Kodai Senga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Kodai Senga’s 95.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph jump from last season’s 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• MJ Melendez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  In the last two weeks, MJ Melendez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+5.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+4.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.55 Units / 36% ROI)