Weather for Phillies vs Nationals Game - 6/23/26

-185O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+160

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Jesus Luzardo’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 90th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Kyle Schwarber is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Washington (#3-best on the slate).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Despite technically being the “starter” today, PJ Poulin may not go more than a couple innings considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
Jorbit Vivas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
Jorbit Vivas is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games (+11.70 Units / 16% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

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