Odds and Betting Trends for Athletics vs Giants - 6/23/26

+125O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-150

Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
Aaron Civale is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Extreme groundball batters like Shea Langeliers usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Today’s version of the Athletics projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .324 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .338 overall projected rate.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
Robbie Ray has utilized his four-seam fastball 8.8% less often this season (43.2%) than he did last year (52%).
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Willy Adames is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+7.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
Zack Gelof has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+19.95 Units / 49% ROI)

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