Uncover the Game Forecast: Red Sox vs Rockies Match Preview - 6/23/26

-160O/U: 10.5
(-110/-110)+140

Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Sonny Gray is projected to throw 84 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least on the slate.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Boston’s 88-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #28 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Sean Sullivan – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
The Boston Red Sox have 6 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sean Sullivan in today’s game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Mickey Moniak has been lucky this year, putting up a .398 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .321 — a .077 disparity.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Colorado Rockies will score 5.85 runs on average in this game: the 2nd-most of all teams playing today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.05 Units / 63% ROI)
Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.25 Units / 14% ROI)
Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)

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