Player Prop Picks for Brewers vs Reds – 6/23/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Brandon Sproat has been unlucky this year, notching a 5.94 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.50 — a 1.44 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Andrew Vaughn has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 16.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 25.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  In his last GS, Nick Lodolo struggled when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Eugenio Suarez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.50 Units / 31% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.65 Units / 28% ROI)