Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Cardinals - June 23rd, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
Eduardo Rodriguez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (52.3% compared to 44.5% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Nolan Arenado’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.9% down to 0%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Arizona’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #24 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Kyle Leahy’s 2187-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 187-rpm drop off from last season’s 2374-rpm figure.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
Lars Nootbaar is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
Alec Burleson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)

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