Updated Player Rankings for D-Backs vs Cardinals - June 23rd, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
Eduardo Rodriguez’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (52.3% compared to 44.5% last season) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under Hits
Ildemaro Vargas has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Arizona’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #25 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
Kyle Leahy’s 2189-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 185-rpm drop off from last season’s 2374-rpm figure.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Alec Burleson may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+120)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games (+20.60 Units / 39% ROI)
Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+6.05 Units / 37% ROI)

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