Get the Latest Score Updates for Red Sox vs Yankees – Tuesday September 30, 2025

Boston Red Sox

@

New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Garrett Crochet has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 8.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Romy Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Romy Gonzalez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected lineup today (.311 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .323 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Max Fried’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (58.2% vs. 50.9% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Trent Grisham has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees batters collectively grade out in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 12% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+20.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 105 games (+14.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+6.80 Units / 68% ROI)