D-Backs vs Athletics Prediction and Game Breakdown – Sunday August 3, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 3, 2025, at Sutter Health Park in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams have struggled this season, with the Athletics sitting at 49-64 and the Diamondbacks at 52-59. The Athletics are currently projected to start Jack Perkins, who has had a rocky year with a 0-1 record and an impressive 2.75 ERA. Despite his strong ERA, advanced stats suggest he may be due for some regression.

In their last outing, the Athletics lost to the Diamondbacks by a score of 7-2, continuing a disappointing trend for the home team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are looking to build momentum after their recent victory, but they are also contending with Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 3-7 record and a troubling 5.63 ERA this season.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 8th in MLB, indicating a solid underlying talent, while the Diamondbacks boast a slightly better rank at 4th. The A’s power at the plate, evidenced by their 152 home runs this year, could play a significant role against Rodriguez, who is a high-flyball pitcher. This matchup could tilt in favor of Oakland if they capitalize on Rodriguez’s tendency to give up home runs.

The projections indicate a high-scoring game with a total set at 10.0 runs. With the Athletics’ current moneyline at -130, they are favored to win, despite their recent struggles. Given their offensive capabilities and Perkins’ potential to outperform expectations, this game may offer value for bettors looking to back the Athletics at home.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+110)
  Out of every team playing today, the best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.201) implies that Blaze Alexander has been lucky since the start of last season with his .238 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Jack Perkins – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jackson Perkins to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  JJ Bleday is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In today’s matchup, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.6% rate (94th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 81 games (+9.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Nick Kurtz has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 57% ROI)