Stream the Athletics vs Yankees Game Live – 6/29/2025

Athletics

@

New York Yankees

On June 29, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Oakland Athletics at Yankee Stadium for the third game of their series. This matchup is particularly interesting as both teams come in with contrasting fortunes; the Yankees are enjoying a solid season with a record of 47-35, while the Athletics are struggling significantly at 34-51.

In their last game, both teams faced off on June 28, where the Yankees were shut out 7-0, further highlighting their recent offensive woes despite ranking 3rd in MLB for overall offense this season. Meanwhile, the Athletics celebrated a rare victory in the same game, also defeating the Yankees by the same score. Given the stakes, the Yankees will be eager to bounce back, especially with their high-powered offense projected to score around 6.16 runs today against Luis Severino, a pitcher with a volatile 4.83 ERA this season.

The Yankees are set to start Marcus Stroman, who has struggled mightily this year, registering a 0-1 record and an alarming 11.57 ERA across just 3 starts. While projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, his performance has been far from reliable, and he projects to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs. Stroman’s last outing was disastrous, as he allowed 5 earned runs in just 1 inning pitched.

On the flip side, Luis Severino has also had a rough season, going 2-8 with an ERA just below average. He projects for 5.3 innings and is expected to give up around 3.6 earned runs today. His matchups against a high-strikeout Yankees offense may play to his favor, given his low strikeout percentage.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Lawrence Butler has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Athletics hitters collectively rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) when it comes to their 89-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Marcus Stroman – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Marcus Stroman’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (45.8 compared to 38.3% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Luis Severino who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+18.42 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)
  Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 25% ROI)