Watch the Royals vs Mets Game Highlights - July 9th, 2026

+120O/U: 9
(-120/+100)-140

Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Michael Wacha has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
Nick Loftin has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Jac Caglianone hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Sean Manaea’s sinker rate has spiked by 23.3% from last year to this one (0.4% to 23.7%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Juan Soto’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 98.7-mph EV last season has dropped to 96-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+7.35 Units / 27% ROI)
Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.80 Units / 17% ROI)

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