Orioles vs Mets Picks and Betting Odds – 9/14/2026

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Mets

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Brandon Young was in good form in his previous GS and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Baltimore’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in Major League Baseball: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• Jonah Tong – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Jonah Tong has tallied 11.5 outs per start since the start of last season, placing in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  A.J. Ewing has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.50 Units / 47% ROI)