Score Updates for Padres vs Rockies - 9/14/26

-210O/U: 11
(-115/-105)+180

Casey Mize – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Casey Mize has relied on his slider 12.3% more often this season (27.6%) than he did last year (15.3%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Dustin Harris – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
Dustin Harris is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen projects as the 8th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Tomoyuki Sugano’s 2417-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 82nd percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
Ezequiel Tovar has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 74.2-mph over the last 7 days.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to record the 2nd-most runs (5.64 on average) of the day.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.85 Units / 39% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (-145)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 away games (+8.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-110/-120)
Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)

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