Team Stats and Prediction for Yankees vs Rays Matchup 7/9/26

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees Insights

• Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz – Over/Under Strikeouts
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Elmer Rodriguez has gone to his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under Total Bases
  Over the last 14 days, Cody Bellinger’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2523-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 94th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jonny DeLuca has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.3-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under Total Bases
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.