Team Stats and Prediction for Yankees vs Rays Matchup 7/9/26

+120O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-145

New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Yarbrough in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Jose Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
Jose Caballero is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
Drew Rasmussen’s 2523-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 94th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-220)
Chandler Simpson’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 80-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+20.75 Units / 40% ROI)
New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)
Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+115/-145)
Austin Wells has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Related Posts