See the Odds and Betting Tips for Braves vs Pirates – July 9th, 2026

Atlanta Braves

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bryce Elder’s sinker usage has dropped by 15.7% from last year to this one (42.2% to 26.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Jorge Mateo – Over/Under Hits
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.144) may lead us to conclude that Jorge Mateo has been lucky since the start of last season with his .220 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In today’s game, Drake Baldwin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (80th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Out of all starters, Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity of 92.8 mph is in the 20th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under Hits
  Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.319 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.