See the Odds and Betting Tips for Braves vs Pirates - July 9th, 2026

-110O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-110

Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Bryce Elder’s sinker usage has dropped by 15.7% from last year to this one (42.2% to 26.5%) .
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Austin Riley has been unlucky this year, notching a .278 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .338 — a .060 deviation.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Drake Baldwin – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
In today’s game, Drake Baldwin is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (80th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Out of all starters, Mitch Keller’s fastball velocity of 92.8 mph is in the 20th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
Nick Gonzales has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .333 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
Atlanta Braves – Run Line -1.5 (+140)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 45 away games (+4.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)

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