Get the Injury Report for Marlins vs D-Backs - Monday September 14th, 2026

+115O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-140

Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
The Miami Marlins outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Griffin Conine’s true offensive talent to be a .313, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .052 deviation between that figure and his actual .365 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Miami Marlins hitters as a unit grade out 26th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 6.8% Barrel%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Corbin Burnes to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 73 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Pavin Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
In today’s matchup, Lars Nootbaar is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.6% rate (99th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.25 Units / 67% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 33% ROI)

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