Read the Boxscore for Rockies vs Astros - Thursday April 16th, 2026

+140O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-165

Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
Chase Dollander’s 97.4-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 98th percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+295/-430)
Tyler Freeman has performed at a clip of 25.3 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 90th percentile for base-stealing.
Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Hunter Goodman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.4% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Ryan Weiss – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Weiss to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Colorado (#1-worst of the day).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Houston Astros in this game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .325, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .346 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.20 Units / 66% ROI)

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