Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Mariners vs Brewers - Thursday, August 20th, 2026

+120O/U: 8
(-105/-115)-140

George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
George Kirby’s 96-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 78th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
Taylor Ward is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
Robert Gasser is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Christian Yelich has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 88.8-mph mark.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Milwaukee’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #5 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.30 Units / 31% ROI)

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