Top Picks: Player Prop Picks for Mariners vs Brewers – Thursday, August 20th, 2026

Seattle Mariners

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  George Kirby’s 96-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 78th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Robert Gasser is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under Total Bases
  Christian Yelich has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 88.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #5 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.