
Toronto Blue Jays
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Tampa Bay Rays
+145O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-165
(-110/-110)-165
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Shane Bieber – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Shane Bieber in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)Extreme groundball bats like Nathan Lukes generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ian Seymour.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Daz Cameron – Over/Under Total BasesDaz Cameron hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Ian Seymour – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Out of all SPs, Ian Seymour’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph is in the 10th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ryan Vilade – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)Ryan Vilade has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the futureExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
