Follow Live Updates on Orioles vs Guardians - Thursday, April 16th, 2026

+110O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-130

Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Tallying 91.7 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, Shane Baz falls in the 77th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Johnathan Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
Johnathan Rodriguez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Coby Mayo pulls many of his flyballs (36.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Parker Messick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Bo Naylor has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Baltimore Orioles has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
The Cleveland Guardians (19.5 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+6.05 Units / 57% ROI)

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