Follow Live Updates on Orioles vs Guardians - Thursday, April 16th, 2026

+115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-135

Shane Baz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Tallying 91.6 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, Shane Baz falls in the 76th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Johnathan Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
Johnathan Rodriguez has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 1.3° mark is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (5th percentile).
Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Leody Taveras has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Parker Messick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
With 7 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
George Valera – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
The Baltimore Orioles have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so George Valera can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Parker Messick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Projected catcher Austin Hedges grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Jeremiah Jackson has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 39% ROI)

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