Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Mariners vs Padres - Thursday, April 16, 2026

-120O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+100

Luis Castillo – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Compared to the average starter, Luis Castillo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
Cal Raleigh has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler struggles to strike batters out (21st percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
In today’s matchup, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.7% rate (100th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Walker Buehler’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (75.6% compared to 58.8% last season) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+450/-750)
Checking in at the 94th percentile for base-stealing, Fernando Tatis Jr. has average 29.8 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.
Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the San Diego Padres.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+10.70 Units / 46% ROI)
Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 19% ROI)

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