
San Francisco Giants
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Cleveland Guardians
+180O/U: 7
(+100/-120)-210
(+100/-120)-210
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to average, Landen Roupp has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Drew Gilbert is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Rafael Devers has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Gavin Williams has utilized his slider 9.1% more often this year (28.8%) than he did last season (19.7%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.3-mph EV last season has dropped off to 83.5-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 35 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)Patrick Bailey has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
