
San Francisco Giants
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Cleveland Guardians
+160O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-185
(-110/-110)-185
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Landen Roupp – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Compared to average, Landen Roupp has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Drew Gilbert is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Rafael Devers has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Gavin Williams has utilized his slider 9.1% more often this year (28.8%) than he did last season (19.7%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.3-mph EV last season has dropped off to 83.5-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
