Pirates vs Braves Betting Guide – 6/05/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Mitch Keller has averaged 17.1 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Oneil Cruz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 17% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Henry Davis pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Martin Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Martin Perez has gone to his cutter 7.2% less often this year (20.2%) than he did last season (27.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Matt Olson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 95.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+12.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-145)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.60 Units / 143% ROI)