
Milwaukee Brewers
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New York Mets
-155O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+135
(+100/-120)+135
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Dustin May – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Dustin May is projected to strikeout 5.2 hitters in this outing, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Jake Bauers has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 104.2-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.6-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
New York Mets Insights
- Robert Stock – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)The Milwaukee Brewers have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Robert Stock in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Marcus Semien pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jared Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Jared Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
