
Baltimore Orioles
@

St. Louis Cardinals
-110O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-110
(-115/-105)-110
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Compared to the average starter, Kyle Bradish has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Michael McGreevy has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5.3% more often this season (58.4%) than he did last year (53.1%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under HitsNolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- St. Louis’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #7 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (+155)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joshua Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Joshua Baez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.95 Units / 88% ROI)
