See the Score for Pirates vs Padres Game - August 26th, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-140

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bubba Chandler to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (9th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Esmerlyn Valdez’s true offensive ability to be a .319, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .060 deviation between that figure and his actual .379 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Rafael Flores, Esmerlyn Valdez).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Randy Vásquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Randy Vasquez’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (46.8 compared to 39.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-140)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+370/-560)
Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+10.50 Units / 105% ROI)

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