See the Score for Pirates vs Padres Game – August 26th, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bubba Chandler to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (7th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Henry Davis’s true offensive talent to be a .304, providing some evidence that he has been unlucky this year given the .050 disparity between that figure and his actual .254 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.311 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .323 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vásquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Randy Vasquez’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (46.8 compared to 39.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under Hits
  Xander Bogaerts has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.