Expert Player Predictions for Rockies vs Nationals – Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Tanner Gordon has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 9.4% more often this season (56.6%) than he did last year (47.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Matt Waldron’s 2065-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 10th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Andrés Chaparro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Andres Chaparro has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph to 95-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+10.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 away games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Troy Johnston – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Troy Johnston has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+6.75 Units / 39% ROI)