
Houston Astros
@

New York Yankees
+105O/U: 9
(+100/-120)-125
(+100/-120)-125
Houston Astros Insights
- Peter Lambert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)In his last start, Peter Lambert turned in a great performance and posted 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Christian Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (+105)The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Houston Astros.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)Elmer Rodriguez is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- José Caballero – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.1-mph EV last year has decreased to 83.8-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- New York Yankees – 2H MoneylineThe New York Yankees bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+5.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-235)Jose Altuve has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 30% ROI)
