
Kansas City Royals
@

Toronto Blue Jays
+115O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-135
(-120/+100)-135
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Randy Dobnak is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #8 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)Michael Massey is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Bobby Witt Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Simeon Woods Richardson – Over/Under StrikeoutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Simeon Woods Richardson in the 14th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Jesús Sánchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Jesus Sanchez is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Kansas City Royals has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.6% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games at home (+19.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-175)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 21% ROI)
