Mariners vs Athletics Expert Picks and Betting Guide - 9/13/2026

-135O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+115

Bryce Miller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bryce Miller is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 15th-least of all pitchers today.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
Josh Naylor is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
In today’s matchup, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.8% rate (100th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Jacob Lopez’s cut-fastball usage has risen by 6.3% from last season to this one (14.2% to 20.5%) .
Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Carlos Cortes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 82.5-mph over the past two weeks.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Athletics today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .299, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .314 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
Zack Gelof has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)

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