
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Miami Marlins
-150O/U: 8.5
(+100/-120)+130
(+100/-120)+130
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Emmet Sheehan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)Emmet Sheehan’s curveball rate has risen by 5% from last season to this one (6.5% to 11.5%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Extreme flyball batters like Max Muncy usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Eury Perez’s 2679-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Kyle Stowers has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 12.5% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
